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Housing Affordability Nationwide Rises To Highest Level In Four Years
Main / Boise Home Builder  

With home prices decreasing and interest rates holding at historically low levels, the number of potential home buyers nationwide and in the Boise City-Nampa MSA who can afford to buy new and existing homes has reached the highest level in more than four years, according to the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Opportunity Index (HOI) released on November 17, 2008.

 

According to the third-quarter HOI readings, 56.1 percent of all new and existing homes that were sold nationwide were affordable to families earning the national median income of $61,500, far more than the 40.4 percent of families who could afford homes at the peak of the housing boom in the third-quarter of 2006. 

In the Boise City-Nampa MSA, 58.6 percent of all new and existing homes that were sold were affordable to families earning the Boise City-Nampa MSA median income of $60,900, 2.5 percent higher than the national average. The 58.6 percent HOI reading for the Boise City-Nampa MSA is 15.74 percent higher than our lowest reading of 40.36 percent in the third-quarter of 2006. It also represents an increase of 14.1 percent increase over the 42 percent reading in the third-quarter 2007.
 
“If there is a silver lining to this crisis, it would be that some housing markets have become more affordable with a larger inventory to choose from,” said NAHB Chairman Sandy Dunn, a home builder from Point Pleasant, W.Va. “But this is undeniably a crisis and Congress needs to act on housing stimulus to get the market moving again.”
 
Please visit www.nahb.org/hoi for tables, historic data and details.
 
The NAHB/Wells Fargo HOI is a measure of the percentage of homes sold in a given area that are affordable to families earning that area’s median income during a specific quarter. Prices of new and existing homes sold are collected from actual court records by First American Real Estate Solutions, a marketing company. Mortgage financing conditions incorporate interest rates on fixed- and adjustable-rate loans reported by the Federal Housing Finance Board.
 
The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Opportunity Index is strictly the product of NAHB Economics, and is not seen or influenced by any outside party prior to being released to the public.
 
Chuck Miller GMB   CGB CGP   MIRM   CMP   MCSP   CSP
President / Builder – Chuck Miller Construction Inc.
(208) 229-2553

chuck@chuckmillerconstruction.com

Posted by Chuck Miller at 11/23/2008 7:04 PM Permalink | Trackback
Comments (5)
Re:Housing Affordability Nationwide Rises To Highest Level In Four Years
Great news and should get better. NAHB also registered the lowest reading EVER in its survey of builders on buyer interest, traffic and expectations. Builders in EVERY region of the US are flashing the worst signal going forward for future sales.

Chuck does NAHB do a Boise only cut of that data...hope its not that grim if they do, becasue those numbers were ugly.
Posted by emdeplam on 11/24/2008 4:07 AM
Re:Housing Affordability Nationwide Rises To Highest Level In Four Years
Emdeplam,

The survey of Builders you're referring to is the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), which sank fiive points to 9, the lowest level recorded since the series was created in January of 1985. The HMI is derived from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting for more than 20 years. It gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as good, fair or poor. The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as high to very high, average or low to very low. Scores for each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor.

Two out of three of the HMIs component indexes declined in November. The index gauging current sales conditions fell six points to 8, which was a new record low, and the index gauging traffic of prospective buyers fell four points to 7 also a record low. Meanwhile, the index gauging sales expectations in the next six months held firm from the previous month at its record low of 19.

NAHB does not break the HMI down by MSA's or specific markets. They do, however, break it down by region and in the recent HMI, every region posted declines in builder confidence in November. The Northeast, South and West each registered five-point declines to 11, 11 and 6, respectively, while the Midwest registered a six-point decline to 7.

Everyone I have talked with in our local market says that they are not seeing any increase in traffic of potential buyers.

Chuck Miller GMB CGB CGP MIRM CMP MCSP CSP
President / Builder Chuck Miller Construction Inc.
(208) 229-2553
chuck@chuckmillerconstruction.com

Posted by Chuck Miller on 11/24/2008 10:32 AM
Re:Housing Affordability Nationwide Rises To Highest Level In Four Years
With housing starts at practically zero, do we really need our sales traffic to increase to eat through the inventory? Of course it would be nice, but it is not necessary. Last month there were 105 sales in Ada County of new-never occupied homes. At this rate we will be under 1000 homes by spring.

There has been a huge shift in pricing over the last 9 months to the more affordable range. It is good to see that this lower pricing is having positive outcomes.
Posted by Scott Flynn on 11/24/2008 11:28 AM
Re:Housing Affordability Nationwide Rises To Highest Level In Four Years
Scott,

Although traffic of potential buyers is extremely low, the mortgage loan officers I have spoken with say they are relatively busy. I believe that's and indication that we are slowly eating through the inventory of existing homes, including short sales and foreclosures. And I believe this is a positive sign since the majority of our excess inventory is in existing homes.

Chuck Miller GMB CGB CGP MIRM CMP MCSP CSP
President / Builder Chuck Miller Construction Inc.
(208) 229-2553
chuck@chuckmillerconstruction.com
Posted by Chuck Miller on 11/24/2008 11:44 AM
Re:Housing Affordability Nationwide Rises To Highest Level In Four Years
Let me revise my numbers. I just received an MLS report stating there are currently 790 active new single family homes (which includes short-sales) on the market in Ada County. If we keep selling at the current rate there might not be any new homes left in the Spring.
Posted by Scott Flynn on 11/25/2008 12:58 PM
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