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Ada County Real Estate Statistics

Main / Ada County Home Resale Market

Here are the latest statistics for inventory in Ada County.

� Naylor News

ADA COUNTY -�August 2007�

Inventory increased by another�127 units crossing the 5,100 mark for the first time in history.� This is why the market feels the way it does, it is simply supply and demand.� We have a larger supply of homes than ever before.

Average Cost of a home sold this month �- $287,632. �This is 1% higher than last year for this month and Year To Date gain at 4%.

Resale inventory -�3576 up from�3393 last month.��Last year at this time there were�2341� homes for sale in the resale market. �07/05 was the low point in resale inventory at 657.

New Construction inventory - 1594 down slightly from 1650 last month. �Last year at this time there were�1735 new homes for sale. �09/05 was the low at 666.

Bottom Line -�The market feels "nervous" to me even though this area continues to outperform the rest of the country.� It is a great time to BUY investment houses; but not sell them.� And a great time to buy UP to a more expensive home; but not down.

Posted by Burma Naylor at 8/13/2007 10:12 AM

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Comments (8)

Re:Ada County Real Estate Statistics

I am struggling to wrap my brain around the latest #'s . I wish I really understood real estate economics. I just cannot believe prices have not started falling. I know consumers are low balling on bids because I hear complaints about that regualrly from sellers.

Posted by tlangford on 8/13/2007 3:13 PM

Re:Ada County Real Estate Statistics

Many people feel that being in a 'buyers market' gives buyers this 'magical low ball wand' to make sometimes unrealistic offers. What people need to understand is that people have their homes for sale for different reasons and their motivation for selling is different, therefore what one seller will accept in an offer, another may not.
For example: Seller A has been relocated to Chicago with his company and his wife is staying until the house sells. Their agent prices the home competitively and markets accordingly The house has been on the market for 3 months and wife now needs to move Chicago. The house sits vacant and for sale for another 3 months; meanwhile they are still making payments on their home that has not sold, as well paying for housing in Chicago.

Seller B has been thinking of buying a larger, more expensive home and decides to put his current home on the market. He is in no hurry to sell because nothing other than the desire to have a different home is forcing him to sell. If it sells it sells, if it doesn't it doesn't, he will wait until he gets what he wants or close to it.

There are countless scenarios similar to these, we need to remember that dropping prices isn't just a number change on a flyer or in the MLS, it is a homeowner's equity.

Posted by Burma Naylor on 8/13/2007 4:11 PM

Re:Ada County Real Estate Statistics

If you read the daily reports on the credit markets and look at when the Valley had it's growth (2005 & 2006) we have not seen the true impact of the sub prime melt down yet.

Under the new lending regulations we have lost 50% of the potential buyers and the rest will be under the magnifing glass when they apply for their mortgage. Even jumbo loans have seen their rates increase putting pressure on the "high" end homes.

When the CEO of Countrywide said his "gut" tells him it will be 2009 before we bottom I'll bet that is more then a "gut" feeling. My money is on the side lines until we see just how deep the credit markets go. Still to many empty houses in the valley.

If you are looking at a home in todays market be sure you ask for the 2008 price not the 2007.

Gary Smith - Star, ID

Posted by Anonymous on 8/13/2007 4:36 PM

Re:Ada County Real Estate Statistics

Thanks Gary for your perspective. It is nice to get some good conversation here!

What isn't good conversation is "its a great time to buy investment properties"...okay let's get some depth to that comment. Rental trends, quick ratio's, ...I don't have the answers, but it seems to me it is difficult at current values to pick up good cash flow properties...PARTICULARLY since there is an added element of downside risk that would demand (from me) an added return premium.

I am so happy to have a forum on Ada housing, but lets make it worthwhile.

Posted by Anonymous on 8/14/2007 6:18 AM

Re:Ada County Real Estate Statistics

I agree with Gary that there are more changes to come and certainly the latest in the the credit and lending world only adds to the growing concern. He also brings up a very important point that fewer loan programs and strict lending guidelines will greater the challenge of getting through our housing inventory. And while higher end homes may be seeing "pressure" nationally, remember our area continues to outperform the rest of the country. In Ada County, the number closed homes $700,000-$999,999 actually increased while other price ranges saw a decline.
Consumers tends to rely solely on how things impact the individual (understandably so), while a broker/agent has additionally learned to focus on the big picture. Just as it is my duty to best represent the needs of my clients by knowing how current changes and future trends will affect them, it is also important to encourage a healthy real estate market. I do this by reporting statistical data and offering simple explanations that people can relate to. There are many people reading the reports and reciting #'s and %'s, we need to make sure we truly understand what they mean and how it affects both buyers and sellers. And if there are people that feel this isn't a worthwhile forum, feel free to continue reading the headlines and other sources that only report a fraction of the information and focus primarily on the negative rather than opening consumers eyes to the bigger picture.

Posted by Burma Naylor on 8/14/2007 11:17 AM

Re:Ada County Real Estate Statistics

Of course you would encourage a healthy real estate market. Your job depends on it. I think that the reports that I read tend to be more positive than negative. I know of two builders that are going under so far and several with double digit inventory and we are almost into September. That doesn't look positive to me. In addition, the fact is that we don't have the jobs to support the average home price. The market doesn't just change overnight. I think we are going to be in this for at least a year and a half. I'll be back then to see what is being said.

Posted by Anonymous on 8/14/2007 2:18 PM

Re:Ada County Real Estate Statistics

Folks, in regards to the investment side, I agree with your comments regarding the job market - less jobs, no income increases = no rent increases. So basically those immature investors that acted like "day traders" are going to drive the market down in thier panic to sell or simply foreclose. I am in an industry that where I daily see these folks upside down on their loans and basically they stop making payments. More supply coming our way.

In regards to the builders; they are opportunist and/or capitalists and with any luck we will see a great many go by the way-side as well. They irresponsibly flooded the market in hopes of riches much like the uneducated investors but they also knew the risk - I have no mercy for them at all. They are not alone in the blame - our planning and building departments have no shame when it comes to allowing builders like Hubble to put up future slums and CBH to stack up houses like Legos.

Right now there is definitely a wait and see market but I think a great deal is fueled by the Media who must be soooo excited to see the market struggling. How many times did we hear on all media outlets that the "Bubble will burst" - what power these folks have to form opinion. I also feel the market prices are holding simply because many of those homes on the market don't have to sell - I would like to see the numbers broken down into owner occupied vs. rental. My guess is the owner occupied have a price in mind and if they don't get it why sell.

I personally own multiple properties which I have purchased before, during and after the huge upswing but never, NEVER have I counted on the Media or the so called experts to form my opinion. I count on realtors like Burma to guide me in all types of markets and my own analysis. We have worked on 2 deals together that have seen an increase of 40% in the past 3 years - however, I didn't finance 100% and all of my properties cash flow. Did I benefit from the euphoria - YOU BET but I will maintain my gain and profit because I did my homework with my Realtors help.

I apologize for the soap box but I believe in investing long term and not simply buying the latest greatest fad which in this case was Real Estate. Expect to see what happened in CA when there were a whole lot of Hummers, McMansions and jewelery on the auction block after the Dot-Com Bomb. I expect a bunch of so-called lenders, realtors, advisors and builders will go away as well leaving those who worked smart to help us all get back to business.

Posted by Anonymous on 8/14/2007 3:10 PM

Re:Ada County Real Estate Statistics

I cant wait to buy a cheap BMW from one of these realators(R) as the decide to go back to working at the Torch or Walmart!

Posted by Anonymous on 8/15/2007 6:05 AM

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