I know I have been advised to stop trying to save the home building industry and to start selling myself by providing people with valuable information. But I cant help myself. And I believe that by trying to save my industry from the semingly unrelenting barrage of downbeat news, I am helping myself and my business.
Yesterday the Idaho Statesman published an article with the headline “Trustee Sales of Foreclosed Homes Jump in Valley.” The Idaho Business Review published a similar article with the headline “Foreclosures Rise in Ada, Canyon.”
Both articles referenced a press release from IdahoDataProviders.com as their source of information. The Statesman stated that trustee sales are up 203% in Ada and 74% in Canyon over last year. The Business Review noted that Ada County one-month totals increased almost every month during 2007 and in March 2008 reached 245, an increase of 147% from March 2007. The Business Review added that Canyon County defaults also keep increasing each month with 161 default filings in March 2008 compared to 55 in March 2007.
I am not disputing the facts provided by IdahoDataProviders.com and published by the Statesman and the Business Review. I also understand that big numbers like 203% and 147% make good news because they grab readers’ attention. But I’d like to offer some other data to put those “big” numbers in perspective and, hopefully, offer a slightly more positive perspective.
According to data from First American CoreLogic and First American LoanPerformance HPI for the Boise MSA as of mid-March 2008:
- The percentage of outstanding mortgage loans 90+ days delinquent was 1.1% - 1.5% compared to other markets around the country were the percentage is greater than 3.2%
- The year-over-year percentage-point change in 90+ day-delinquency rates was less than 1.0% compared to other markets around the country were the percentage is greater than 2.0%
- The percentage of outstanding mortgages in foreclosure was less than 0.5% (1/2 of 1%) compared to other markets around the country were the percentage is greater than 4.0%
- The year-over-year percentage-point change in foreclosure rates was less that 0.2% (two-tenths of 1%) compared to other markets around the country were the percentage is greater than 0.6%
- The percentage of outstanding mortgage loans owned by the lender was between 0.3% (three-tenths of 1%) and 0.6% (six-tenths of 1%) compared to other markets around the country were the percentage is greater than 2.5%
- The year-over-year percentage-point change in outstanding mortgage loans owned by the lender was between 0.2% (two-tenths of 1%) and 0.4% (four-tenths of 1%) compared to other markets around the country were the percentage is greater than 0.6%
- The 90+ day-delinquent loans and cumulative pre-foreclosures started during last 12 months divided by number of loans outstanding was between 2.9% and 3.9% compared to other markets around the country were the percentage is greater than 7.5%
- The cumulative number of foreclosures started during the current 12-month period divided by number of loans outstanding was between 0.4% (four-tenths of 1%) and 0.7% (seven-tenths of 1%) compared to other markets around the country were the percentage is greater than 2.5%
- During the past 12 months, the MSA has experienced moderate Home Price Appreciation of just under 5% compared to other markets around the country were Home Prices have depreciated more than 5%.
I guess I could have used some big numbers to grab your attention, like 200% or 357% or 400% better than other markets, but I chose not to. I’ll just let the data speak for itself.
Chuck Miller
President - Chuck Miller Construction Inc. (208) 229-2553
www.chuckmillerconstruction.com